Key NYC Commercial RE Stats Heading in 2026
Below find the 2025 year end stats and what you need to know heading into 2026. The data reflects a resilient market with significant momentum heading into 2026. 2025 Market Performance at a Glance| Category | 2025 Performance | Historical Context |
|---|---|---|
| Leasing Velocity | 32.3M sq. ft. | Just shy of the decade peak (32.4M in 2018) |
| Total Velocity | 40.5M sq. ft. | Strongest year of the decade (including renewals) |
| Net Absorption | 13.6M sq. ft. | Highest total of the decade; space taken off the market |
| Availability Rate | 15.5% | Down significantly from 18.5% in 2024 and 20% in 2023 |
Rent & Pricing Trends
Average rents have remained relatively stable over the past several years, though
there is a widening “bifurcation” between asset classes and submarkets.
- Average Asking Rents:
- Midtown: $84.24/sq. ft.
- Midtown South: $84.77/sq.
- Downtown: $58.40/sq. ft.
- Average Asking Rents:
- Midtown: 96.3%
- Midtown South: 93.3%
- Downtown: 89.2%
Strategic Takeaways
Sector-Driven Demand: Strong demand from Finance, Law, and a resurgence in
Tech/AI has significantly tightened availability in Prime (Class A) and “Next Tier”
office buildings.
- Market Polarization: Pricing remains highly bifurcated. Rents for best-in-
class assets are hitting record highs, while “commodity” spaces in less
desirable areas and further away from transportation ( West 30s, FIDI,
Harlem, Brooklyn) are seeing minimal pricing movement. - Concession Outlook: Despite high demand in top-tier buildings, generous
concession packages (free rent and Tenant Improvement allowances) are
expected to persist as landlords compete for long-term stability. - Operational Shifts: The lack of large contiguous blocks of space in prime
buildings may force growing tenants to split operations across multiple
locations. - Inventory Contraction: The removal of outdated inventory for residential
conversions continues to tighten the market. If leasing velocity remains
strong, we can expect pricing in commodity properties to finally begin an
upward trend as options dwindle. - Conclusion The prime assets will continue to push pricing as availability in
the better buildings continues to shrink. There are still opportunities to
achieve a lower rent in the submarkets mentioned above (Downtown, West
30’s) However, another year of strong leasing activity and the continuation
of conversions would tighten the market further, allowing landlords of the
commodity/lower priced buildings to raise rents for the first time in five
years. Engaging the market sooner than later could be critical to securing
more favorable economics on a long-term leasing transaction.
Please let me know if you require additional information or would like to discuss
how these trends might impact your specific requirements or portfolio strategy.
Paul Walker
212-984-7117
About the Author
Paul Walker
As a commercial real estate broker specializing in all facets of office leasing for over 30 years, I’m also a proud native New Yorker with a deep love for this city. My commitment to my community is reflected in my founding of two real estate charity events and consistent involvement in professional organizations. Outside of work, I enjoy live music, movies, basketball, tennis, podcasts, and a continuous pursuit of knowledge, especially regarding history and the fascinating story of New York.